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光伏产品出口前景好压力也不小
返回列表 来源: 发布日期: 2022.05.17 浏览次数:

在全球能源绿色转型的大趋势下,光伏等新能源行业迎来空前的发展机遇。

今年一季度,中国光伏产品出口金额大幅增长。中国机电产品进出口商会太阳能光伏产品分会秘书长张森认为,海外市场的旺盛需求推动了中国光伏产品的出口。机遇当前,但成本上涨、供应紧缺、货物交付风险和贸易摩擦频发等也让中国光伏产品出口面临挑战。

高需求带动出口高增长

今年一季度,中国硅片出口额超11.9亿美元,同比增长60.3%。马来西亚、越南和泰国是中国硅片的重要出口地,中国共向3国出口7.6亿美元,同比增长74%,占中国海外市场份额超过50%。其中,中国对马来西亚出口3.2亿美元,同比增长68.6%;对越南出口2.8亿美元,同比增长84.5%;对泰国出口1.6亿美元,同比增长68.6%。

今年以来,中国光伏电池片对印度和土耳其出口激增。数据显示,一季度,中国光伏电池片出口额为8.3亿美元,印度、土耳其、泰国、韩国和越南为前五大出口市场,占中国电池片出口市场份额的72%。其中,中国对印度出口光伏电池片3亿美元,占比36%;中国对土耳其出口光伏电池片1.1亿美元,占比13%。

“受此前印度官方公布的自4月1日起大幅提高光伏组件基本关税的影响,印度进口商的突击进口推高了中国光伏组件出口金额。”张森表示。数据显示,一季度,中国光伏组件出口额约106亿美元,同比增长122.9%。印度、荷兰和巴西是中国光伏组件出口前三大市场,占整体出口市场份额的57%。其中,中国对印度出口光伏组件24.9亿美元,占比23%。

“另一方面,受俄乌冲突影响,欧洲各国纷纷出台新能源发展鼓励政策。欧洲光伏市场的大发展同样推动了中国光伏组件出口额增长。”张森表示。一季度,中国对荷兰、西班牙、波兰和德国出口光伏组件分别为22.2亿美元、6.2亿美元、3.9亿美元和2.9亿美元。

此外,中国光伏组件对巴西出口13.3亿美元,市场份额占比12.6%。自2014年以来,巴西84%的能源项目皆为可再生能源项目。巴西发布的《2050年国家能源计划》制定了长期目标以及长达10年的能源扩张计划。张森预计,2022年巴西将新增装机12GW,利好中国光伏组件出口。

今年以来,中国逆变器出口金额呈现稳定增长的趋势,荷兰始终保持中国逆变器第一大出口市场地位。数据显示,一季度,中国出口逆变器金额超过13.1亿美元,同比增长31.7%。其中,对荷兰、巴西出口逆变器金额分别为约2.9亿美元、1.6亿美元,同比分别增长57.5%、63.4%。

多重压力不容忽视

专家认为,在中国光伏产品出口额实现大幅增长的同时,成本上涨、供应紧缺、货物交付风险和贸易摩擦不断等问题亦不容忽视。

硅料涨价对于光伏行业已不算是新挑战。2021年硅料价格最高时达272.2元/kg,与年初88元/kg相比涨幅达209.3%。2022年以来,硅料再次迎来涨价潮,截至4月20日,均价从年初的231.8元/kg上涨至253.3元/kg,涨幅达9.1%。与此同时,硅片价格也相应上涨,并向下传导,引发全产业链价格上调。

“近期受疫情影响,各地出现工厂停工、减产的情况,原料供应和生产、物流等方面均不同程度受限,硅料扩产产能释放增量不足,发货和到货时间延后,部分下游企业在原有长单供应无法保障的情况下,临时加单情况增多。这使得原本就供不应求的硅料、硅片供应更显紧缺。”张森表示。

俄乌冲突下,部分光伏企业面临货物滞港及收款困难。俄乌两国的光伏新增装机量虽在全球光伏市场占比不大,但仍有部分中国企业对乌克兰出口光伏产品。据机电商会光伏分会调研显示,目前有个别对乌克兰供货的中国企业的货物滞留在乌克兰港口无法运出,还有的企业货物仍在航线上未抵港,因客户无法提货造成违约。

今年以来,美国针对越南、马来西亚、泰国和柬埔寨四国的光伏产品启动反规避调查,使得美国光伏需求呈现阶段性不明朗;印度为保护本土光伏组件生产商的市场份额,支持印度本土制造,决定自4月份起对外国制造的太阳能组件征收40%的基本关税,对电池征收25%的基本关税;加之土耳其对中国光伏组件发起的反倾销日落复审调查等贸易摩擦让中国光伏企业出口倍感压力。

此外,目前欧盟委员会正在启动“光伏组件、逆变器和系统的环境影响”新规定草案编制工作,拟对光伏产品全生命周期碳足迹加强监管。碳足迹认证或成为新型绿色壁垒,给中国光伏企业出口带来挑战。 

Faoi threocht ghinearálta an athrú glas fuinnimh domhanda, tá deiseanna forbartha gan roimh ré ag tionscail fheithiclí photovoltaice agus tionscail nua eile fuinnimh.
In the first quarter of this year, the export amount of China's photovoltaic products increased significantly. Zhang Sen, Secretary General of the solar photovoltaic products branch of China Chamber of Commerce for import and export of mechanical and electrical products, believes that the strong demand in the overseas market has promoted the export of China's photovoltaic products. At present, there are opportunities, but the rising cost, shortage of supply, risk of goods delivery and frequent trade frictions also make China's photovoltaic products export face challenges.
Bíonn ardfhás onnmhairiúcháin ag an éileamh
Sa chéad cheathrú den bhliain seo, níos mó ná $1.19 billiún de Mheiriceá, méadú bliain ar bliain de 60.3%. Is onnmhaireoirí tábhachtacha iad an Mhalaisia, Vítneam agus an Thaalainn d’uimhir shíleacóin na Síne. Idir na nithe sin, bhí onnmhairiú na Síne chuig an mMalaisia 320 milliún dólar SAM, méadú bliain ar bliain de 68.6%; Chuir onnmhairí go Vítneam 280 milliún dólar SAM, méadú bliain ar bliain de 84.5%; Exports to Thailand reached US $160 million, a year-on-year increase of 68.6%.
Since this year, China's exports of photovoltaic cells to India and Turkey have surged. Data show that in the first quarter, China's photovoltaic cell export volume was US $830 million, and India, Turkey, Thailand, South Korea and Vietnam were the top five export markets, accounting for 72% of China's cell export market share. Among them, China exported 300 million US dollars of photovoltaic cells to India, accounting for 36%; China exported 110 million US dollars of photovoltaic cells to Turkey, accounting for 13%.
"Affected by the substantial increase in the basic tariff of photovoltaic modules since April 1, which was officially announced by India, the sudden import of Indian Importers pushed up the export amount of photovoltaic modules in China." Dúirt Zhang Sen. Data show that in the first quarter, China's exports of photovoltaic modules were about US $10.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 122.9%. India, the Netherlands and Brazil are the top three markets for China's photovoltaic module exports, accounting for 57% of the overall export market share. I measc na gcuid sin, bhí $2.49 billiún SAM ag an tSín ar onnmhairiú modúl photovoltaic chuig an India, rud a bhí 23%.
"Ar an taobh eile, a bhfuil tionchar acu ag an gcoinbhleacht idir an Rúis agus an Úcráin, tugadh tíortha Eorpacha isteach beartais chun forbairt fuinnimh nua a spreagadh. Dúirt Zhang Sen. In the first quarter, China's exports of photovoltaic modules to the Netherlands, Spain, Poland and Germany were US $2.22 billion, US $620 million, US $390 million and US $290 million respectively.
In addition, China's exports of photovoltaic modules to Brazil amounted to US $1.33 billion, accounting for 12.6% of the market share. Ó 2014, bhí 84% de thionscadail fuinnimh sa Bhrasaíl tionscadail fuinnimh inathnuaite. Brazil's 2050 national energy plan sets long-term goals and a 10-year energy expansion plan. Zhang Sen predicts that Brazil will add 12gw of installed capacity in 2022, which will benefit China's export of photovoltaic modules.
Since the beginning of this year, China's inverter export value has shown a steady growth trend, and the Netherlands has always maintained the largest export market position of China's inverter. Léiríonn sonraí go raibh onnmhairiú inverter na Síne níos mó ná $1.31 billiún SAM s a chéad cheathrú bliain, méadú bliain ar bliain de 31.7%. Idir na nithe sin, bhí méid an inverter a onnmhairíodh chuig an Ísiltír agus chuig an bBraisil thart ar $290 milliún SAM agus $160 milliún SAM faoi seach, agus méadú bliantúil de 57.5% agus 63.4% faoi seach.
Multiple pressures cannot be ignored
Experts believe that while the export volume of China's photovoltaic products has increased significantly, problems such as rising costs, shortage of supply, continuous risk of goods delivery and trade friction can not be ignored.
Ní dúshlán nua é ardú praghsanna ábhair shiilicóin don tionscal fotó-oltaic. Sa bhliain 2021, bhain praghas na hábhair síliúcháin amach 272.2 yuan/kg ag an bpic, méadú 209.3% i gcomparáid le 88 yuan/kg ag tús na bliana. Since 2022, the price of silicon material has been rising again. As of April 20, the average price has increased from 231.8 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year to 253.3 yuan / kg, an increase of 9.1%. At the same time, the price of silicon wafers also rose accordingly and transmitted downward, triggering an increase in the price of the whole industry chain.
"Recently, affected by the epidemic, factories have shut down and reduced production in various places. The supply of raw materials, production and logistics are limited to varying degrees. The incremental release of silicon production capacity is insufficient, and the delivery and arrival time are delayed. Some downstream enterprises have increased the number of temporary orders when the original long-term order supply cannot be guaranteed. This makes the supply of silicon materials and silicon wafers in short supply even more scarce." Dúirt Zhang Sen.
Faoi an gcoinbhleacht idir an Rúis agus an Úcráin, tá roinnt fiontair photovoltaice ag dul i ngleic le deacrachtaí caomhnaithe lasta agus bailithe lasta. Cé go bhfuil acmhainn photovoltaic nua-suiteáilte na Rúise agus na hÚcráine in a gcuid beag sa mhargadh photovoltaic domhanda, onnmhairíonn roinnt gnóthas Síneach fós táirgí photovoltaic chuig an Úcráin. According to the research of photovoltaic branch of chamber of Commerce for mechanical and electrical industry, at present, the goods of some Chinese enterprises supplying to Ukraine are stranded in Ukrainian ports and cannot be transported out, and the goods of other enterprises are still on the route and have not arrived in the port, resulting in breach of contract due to customers' inability to pick up the goods.
Ó thosach na bliana seo, tá na Stáit Aontaithe tar éis imscrúduithe frith-imghabhála a thionscnamh ar tháirgí fótáilteacha ó Vítnam, ón Mhálaisía, ón Thaalainn agus ón gCambóid, rud a dhéanann an t-éileamh ar tháirgí fótáilteacha sna Stáit Aontaithe neamhchinnteach i gcéimeanna; Chun scair mhargaidh monaróirí áitiúla modúl PV a chosaint agus tacú le monarú áitiúil san India, chinn an India buntharaif 40% a fhorchur ar mhodúl ghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrianghrian Ina theannta sin, tá brú curtha ar onnmhairiú fiontar photovoltaic na Síne ag treisiúin trádála amhail an imscrúdú athbhreithnithe frithdhumpála ar thaisceadh an ghrianta arna dtionscnamh ag an Tuirc ar mhodúil photovoltaic na Síne.
In addition, the European Commission is currently starting the preparation of the new draft regulation on "environmental impact of photovoltaic modules, inverters and systems", which plans to strengthen the supervision of the carbon footprint of photovoltaic products throughout their life cycle. Carbon footprint certification may become a new green barrier, which brings challenges to the export of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises.

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